Canvassing Leads To Happy Tiredness

Afternoon all.

SO

EXHAUSTED

But it's been good! Canvassing with Sarah Newton & some of my Conservative friends today and t'was very enjoyable. I shall have a full report on it v soon (look forward to that on Monday).

And at the end of a budget-filled week, Brown officially backs Darling as Chancellor if Labour win the election. Who knew?

Sorry it's only a short update, there'll be more next week.

Have a good weekend people!
Chris

Budget Week Part IV: The Osborne Fights Tax

So then. How's that budget gone down?

Well, the Cider-Is-The-Most-Important-Financial-Resource-KNOWN-TO-MAN bandwagon is still rolling along: I'm all for being a cider drinker, but if people care about it that much then why don't they make it themselves? This has understandably had a big impact in the West Country, with the Lib Dems sounding rather miffed: maybe it will see a swing towards them, maybe not.

"Let's take this outside, Darling"

Meanwhile Osborne's finally had his say on the Budget itself: arguing that it has "no original ideas", "totally empty", and full of "hidden taxes". He's also claiming that there are a lot of hidden taxes that are going to hit both the middle and working classes, which may well be true. Unfortunately, while some of his arguments may be sound, they are not entirely original themselves: the Conservative Party in 1992 argued the same thing about Labour's policy on taxation. 18 years on, and it's tax bombshells all over again. Not that there's necessarily anything wrong with that: after all, if it helped the Conservatives get in before, why not try it again?

One of Osborne aide's finds the source of the taxing: it's a bombshell!

But Osborne might find himself in trouble with this argument. He's saying that Labour are proposing no original ideas - that they've nicked everything from the Tories, that is - but he's also saying that a new Conservative Government will scrap Darling's policies. What, even the ones that you want to implement? That sounds a bit unlikely...

Still, having actually listened to Osborne, he's not quite the liability I took him for. But he still seems incapable of capitalising on the current Chancellor's job insecurity. If either he or Cameron had pointed to the fact that Brown ideally wants to replace Darling, then perhaps his position would be fatally undermined.

Darling's score so far? I'd say 7/10. One off for the cider, one off for being boring, one off for being a little too political. But then, we are nearing an election.

Chris

Budget Week Part III: Brief Analysis.

So, the Budget's been announced. Bit difficult to guess how it's gone down at the moment: ultimately we'll find out at the election. But yes, Darling seems to have done a relatively decent job.

Because let's face it, when your main complaint about the budget comes down to a 10% increase in the price of cider, you really are clutching at straws. Especially as the Conservatives say they were also planning to introduce that.

"This is CIDER!!!"

Basically, I think what Darling has done is remarkably canny. By taking a few Conservative policies - namely stamp duty, creating more university places and raising the duties on cider - he's shown Labour and the Conservatives as being relatively similar. This might not seem like a wise move, until you realise that a lot of undecided voters will therefore see the Lib Dems as being the only viable alternative. So a lot of people thinking about voting Tory might now decide to switch to Lib Dem instead: a move that would be far more beneficial for Labour than it would for the Conservatives, who appear to have indicated that they would not want to work with the Lib Dems, and vice versa.

Cameron: "Why are we laughing?" - Osborne: "I have no idea"

The speech itself has been seen by some as boring, and certainly Darling is not Mr Charisma. But he wasn't trying to be: he was trying to be Mr Sensible, and whilst this Budget may not necessarily be a roaring success, it was far from a disaster. Cuts were made in places, an effort is being made to reduce borrowing, but the desire to keep a recovery going remains from Darling. Indeed, you wonder if he might have done a better job than Brown had he been given the job in 1997. But as I've already said, the chances of him surviving post-election are about as likely as him resembling Sam the Eagle.

"I've been meaning to fix that shelf/economy."

Okay, bad example.

More reaction tomorrow!

Thanks for reading, Chris

Prime Minister's Questions

Starting... now! Will be tweeting like mad for the next hour.


Oh it's budget time it's budget time,


Won't you have some budgets of miiiiiiiiiiiiiiiine....







Chris

Budget Week Part II: Clarke vs Mandelson

Evening all,

With the budget due to be announced tomorrow, the talk's about whether Darling's going to draw up a sensible budget, and get the backing of those in the City of London, or whether he's going to try and bring in tax cuts, which could help Labour gain some much-needed popularity.

"My budget brings all the press to the yard, and they're like, it's better than yours..."

The problem is, when it comes to economic policy these days, both Darling and his opposite number, George Osborne, can both be seen as slightly weak when it comes to personality. This is because Labour and the Conservatives have Business Secretaries that, if you didn't know it, could easily be mistaken as Chancellors: Peter Mandelson, and Ken Clarke. In the latter's case, it's forgivable: Clarke was Chancellor under the last Conservative Government, from 1993 until 1997.

The two of them, along with David Thurso (the Lib Dem spokesman for Business, Innovation and Skills), were on Newsnight, and you can see them being grilled by Paxman here. Incindentally, what is it about Lib Dem frontbenchers having awesome beards? Is it supposed to be a vote-getter or something?

"David Thurso (Bill Bailey Beard-Lovers Party)... 16,472 votes"

Anyway, I couldn't help but feel it would have been much better to have Darling, Osborne and Vince Cable having a debate so close to the budget: but with the exception of Cable, neither is known especially well by the public. Mandelson, of course, is hard to ignore: the man who was sacked twice under Blair, and the man who Brown supposedly despises yet had to bring back in 2008.

Which begs the question: whose budget is it, anyway? Is Darling being allowed to write his own version, or is it Mandelson holding the pen? The same question can be applied if the Conservatives get in: after all, Clarke can hardly be expected to not have any say on economic policy. He is a considerable political heavyweight, having been both Home Secretary and Chancellor under John Major, and an MP since 1970: Mandelson's influence on the Blair government, meanwhile, is well documented. It is a case of when an unstoppable spindoctor meets an immovable saxophonist (but alas, it's not Bill Clinton).

"Marvel at my invisible book, y'all"

So though it'll be Darling giving the budget tomorrow, you can bet that Mandelson will be the one doing the PR: and likewise Clarke for Osborne's response. When it comes to the Budget, these two will be in charge of engineering the response.

Last time these two clashed over an election, Mandelson's Labour Party thrashed Clarke's Conservative Party. If Clarke wins this round, he'll win on aggregate. And that will make revenge all the sweeter after his three failed attempts to become Tory leader.

One thing's for sure: it won't be the end of Mandelson. If he can come back after being sacked twice, he'll come back again.

Budget tomorrow. Will it be a Norman Lamont classic? Darling's certainly got the eyebrows for it...

Chris

Budget Week Part I: What The Heck Is A Budget?

Afternoon all!

It's the political event of the year/month/nanosecond, and it's happening on Wednesday when Mr Alistair Darling finds that lunchbox he hasn't used since Year 4...

"My mummy says I'm a good boy!"

Ahem... and gives his Pre-Election Budget. But what exactly is a budget?

Well, to keep it simple to begin with, a budget is basically a list of all known incomes (money you receive from others) and expenditures (money you give to others). Most people can come up with a personal budget, because it's relatively easy to come up with a list of what you're spending.

The difficulty is addressing a budget deficit: for example, if I have £1000 to spend over six months, and I spend £700 in the first three months, I would clearly need to evaluate my budget in order to stop myself running into debt. This might reducing my expenditure (eg not spending £70 on beer every month, or reducing my food bill from £20 a week to £15 a week, and so on), which is annoying, but necessary: or it could mean finding myself a job in order to raise revenue.

And with a government, it's a similar story. In the case of the Labour Government, too much money has been spent, and not enough revenue has been created. So how can it get rid of the accumulated debt? Answer - draw up a new budget.

However, it's a tricky thing to do right. In order to raise revenue, which is one way of solving the problem, the Government can put up taxes: income tax, VAT, fuel tax, duties, levies, and the like. But that doesn't usually go down well with the public. So the alternative is to decrease expenses, such as spending on education, health and transport: but that goes against what Labour's been doing over the past 13 years. So Chancellor Darling has to get the balance right: raise taxes too high and he'll risk upsetting the public; cut spending too little and he'll be accused of not doing enough to halt the deficit; cut spending too much and he'll be seen as betraying New Labour. It's a toughie.

As you can see, it's not the economic impact that's important with a pre-election budget: it's how the country responds to it, and also how the Opposition responds. If Cameron can conclusively show that his economic policy is better, he'll be home and dry. If not, hung parliament methinks.

The slightly sad case is that, regardless of what Darling does, he's going to be out of a job come May. Even if Brown does win, he and Darling do not get on, and it is likely that Ed Balls will replace the oddly-eyebrowed political veteran at No. 11 if Labour do manage to hold on. So he's damned if he does a good enough job to get Labour in, and damned if he doesn't.

For now, all Darling's saying is that there won't be any giveaways: but that seems to be at odds with No. 10. It'll be interesting to see who comes out on top in that one.

More tomorrow! Oh, and two people are expecting a baby. Which wouldn't necessarily be big political news...

Chris