Take a Look at my Economic Growth, Girls

Welp, so much for the recession. We hope...

Taken from BBC News

The UK economy grew by a faster-than-expected 1.1% in the second quarter of the year, according to official data.

The figure - a preliminary estimate from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) - was almost double the 0.6% growth rate expected by economists.

It was the fastest quarterly expansion since 2006, and marked a sharp pick-up in pace from the 0.3% growth of the first three months of the year.

Much of the growth came from the key services sector.

Within the services sector, which accounts for about three-quarters of the UK economy, business and finance posted its strongest rise in almost three years, rising by 1.3% over the quarter.

There was a big contribution from the construction industry, which grew at its fastest pace since 1963, in part because bad weather at the start of the year meant builders were catching up on work that should have taken place then.

Continue reading the main story

“Start Quote

There are going to be some big swings in the quarterly numbers before the true pace of the recovery becomes clear”

End Quote

Stephanie Flanders Economics editor, BBC News

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• Read Stephanie's blog in full

The only sector to register a fall was transport and communications - down 0.7% on the quarter following the impact of Iceland's volcanic ash cloud in April.

The ONS said the last time the UK had growth of more 1.1% in any quarter was in 1999.

'Strong rise'

The Chancellor, George Osborne, said the figures proved his plan to cut the public sector was right.

He said: "In the Budget, I set out a plan to restore confidence in our economy by dealing with the deficit, starting this year, and to rebalance growth from the public to private sector.

"Today's figures show the private sector contributing all but 0.1% of the growth in the second quarter, and put beyond doubt that it was right to begin acting on the deficit now."

His predecessor, Alistair Darling, said the figures owed more to his government's policy. He said they vindicated the "measured and balanced" approach taken by the Labour government.

The BBC's economics editor, Stephanie Flanders, said it was always important not to read too much into one set of figures - however striking.

What is GDP?

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• Gross domestic product
• A measure of a country's economic activity, namely of all the services and goods produced in a year

• Q&A: What is GDP?

And economists said the rise did not mean the UK economy had fully recovered.

George Buckley, economist at Deutsche Bank, said: "This is a very strong rise. It is good news to the extent that the recovery seems to be gaining traction, the bad news is that it is going to take a long time before we get back to the peak levels we saw at the start of 2008."

And the phrase "as good as it gets" summed up the view of a number of observers, including the Institute of Directors (IoD).

Graeme Leach, the IoD's chief economist, said: "The latest quarterly GDP figures were good news, but we think they're likely to be as good as it gets. We do not think this rate of growth can be maintained."

Man Graeme why you gotta be such a downer? Honestly...

The Evening Stanners

Also, Also!

My blog has been stalked courtesy of Facebook.

Does this mean I have a fan club? If so, I am not sure if this is a good or bad thing.

Have picked up the Times today: Mandelson's memoirs = major political win. Blair vs Brown is hilarious, especially as Blair keeps saying Brown is like a member of the mafia. STEP OUTSIDE POSH BOY...

The Evening Stanners

I appear to be stuck in Devon

Dear Sir,

I feel I must express my annoyance at being stuck in Salcombe for the majority of my summer without a permanent internet connection and poor telephone signal. People seem to have lost their pride in being part of the digital phenomenon.

If only more people would feel inclined to write letters these days, possibly to the following address:

Chris Stanley,
Salcombe YHA
Sharpitor
Salcombe
Devon
TQ8 8LW

Then I might be able to send them a letter back, which might just be what Britain needs to get us out of this current economic crisis.

Yours etc etc,

Chris Stanley

PS Postcards would also be acceptable. Send your addresses to christopherjulianstanley@gmail.com

The Evening Stanners

Holland of Hope And Glory

Three words: Yippee-ki-yay, Wesley Sneijder. After all the hype and dominance, Brazil are leaving the World Cup as suddenly and painfully as ol' Maggie left Downing Street: and with just as many tears and tantrums, might I add.

Of course, I am relatively pleased with the result: in the sense that, if Holland get two more wins, I'll somehow have found myself with nigh-on fifty quid. But sweepstakes aside, it is a shame that Brazil have gone: and gone so shockingly. One disastrous own goal (with cries of dodgy keeper all around), one badly defended corner, and one disgusting tackle combined to leave them with too much to do. They went out at the Quarter-Final stage last time too. It's just as well they're hosting it next time round, isn't it?

And then there were seven: Holland, Uruguay and Ghana (who play tonight), Spain and Paraguay, and Argentina and Germany.

Any preferences on who you want to win out of that lot? I'd like to see a Holland vs Spain final myself. That way, even if Holland do lose, it'll mean Spain finally win the World Cup. Then we can go back to a life without football.

For about four weeks.

Hmm...

The Evening Stanners

PS Felipe Melo had quite the game, didn't he? Sets up one, accidentally scores one, then gets sent off. Classic.

Not just a Tory-Dominated Coalition?

I am, in effect, repeating what Mark Thomson has said on his own commendable blog, Mark Reckons; but you have to take heart at what Ken Clarke (the new Justice Secretary) said today.

Of course, I like Ken Clarke generally. He's a Conservative who worked under Heath and Thatcher, true, but he is definitely not hardcore right-wing. If anything, he's more Conservative Liberal than Liberal Conservative. Nevertheless, his announcement that the prison service needs to be used as the last resort, and not the first, is encouraging.

Clarke, lest it should be forgot, has been here before: he was Home Secretary from 1992 until 1993, when the prison figures in England and Wales were well under 50,000. The fact that the 2010 figure is 85,000, therefore, is worrying. That's roughly 1 in 1000 people in prison. Using a few examples, therefore, Falmouth's prison population has gone from 15 to 30, Plymouth's from 100 to 200, and London's: well, you get the idea. That's a lot of prisoners to "bang up". And Britain, quite frankly, doesn't have the capacity for that.

So yes, stopping people from going to prison may not be the most popular thing for a poor family that's just had their house burgled, or had their car stolen. But if the previous Labour government had to let prisoners out early because overcrowding was that bad - and it was - then is prison the only answer?

I must admit, having no experience of prison myself, that my best source of knowledge of life behind bars is The Shawshank Redemption, which is a brilliant film in its own right. But it is important to realise the dangers of over-relying on an institution; as shown by the very sad story of an old prisoner, called Brooks, who simply cannot cope with the outside world after being released.



Yes, prisoners have done horrific things. And they don't deserve our help. But my word, do they need it. Because if all you offer them is walls and bars, then that's what they'll adjust to.

And then they don't go back. Their problems are bottled up, as the prisons fill up. And new prisons are hard to come by in times like these.

So Ken Clarke has three options.

He can keep things the way they are, even though the prisons are overcrowded. He can decide to be even more extreme, and re-introduce the death penalty: because, as Dickens satirically put it, "Killing people was simpler than jailing them".

Or, he can decide that there's more than one way to deal with a criminal: encouraging community service is just one example. And that's exactly what's he's done. It may well be a victory of sorts for Liberals: but more importantly, it's a victory for common sense.

The Evening Stanners

PS If you haven't watched the Shawshank Redemption, I cannot praise it enough. It is well worth watching all the way through, but the scene with Brooks is excellent film-making. You can't help but feel sorry for him :-(

Mr Gordon Brown, Where Art Thou?

(To be sung to the theme of Scooby-Doo, ideally)

Taken from the Guardian, y'all:

Age: 59.

Appearance: The Invisible Man, sans bandages.

The grumpy one who used to be prime minister? More or less. He's the business-friendly son of the manse who helped make Labour electable after 18 years in the wilderness, blah blah. But grumpy? JK Rowling calls him "affable, funny and gregarious".

When I die, I want that woman to write my obituary. So what's Brown doing now? Pretending to care about the Middle East? That's the other unpopular former Labour premier. This one's still in parliament, on the backbenches for the first time since Margaret Thatcher was in power. Almost 65% of the voters of Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath still love him.

Are you positive he isn't sorting out the Palestinian Question? He hasn't been on telly. He's been to the House of Commons twice since the election, once to take the oath of allegiance, and once to sit through two minutes of questions to the new environment secretary.

Isn't he right to keep his head down? If he doesn't, the other Labour MPs will only complain he's disrupting their leadership campaign. Whereas if he does, the Tories will complain he's neglecting his duties. On Monday, Cameron told the Commons he wished Brown "could be bothered to turn up to this House". If you're a politician, this is simply hilarious.

Whereas if you're not it's simply pathetic. So how has Brown been filling the hours? Watching every match in the World Cup, according to the cynics. "Working hard in his constituency," according to his wife.

And lovingly contemplating his leaving present? What did the rest of the cabinet give him? An overpriced print of Chequers, like Tony Blair got? Absolutely nothing so far. As one of them explained: "For a while we didn't know if he was going or not." And it is only seven weeks since Brown resigned.

Do say: "Just think of all the time you'll have to catch up with old friends."

Don't say: "That Gillian Duffy's at the door again."

Brown isn't the first to adopt this approach: John Major did something similar in 1997, staying on as an MP for four years but keeping himself "out of trouble"; and Edward Heath stayed on the backbenches for a good 26 years after being forced to step down as leader.

I did also think of Alec Douglas-Home, PM from 1963 until 1964 as a possible example, but Douglas-Home actually returned in 1970 as Foreign Secretary: proof that your Parliamentary career is not necessarily "over" if you get ousted from No. 10. Though it seems unlikely Brown will be taking a job in the Shadow Cabinet any time soon.

Incidentally, if you have a minute, the story about Douglas-Home potentially getting kidnapped as PM in '64 is fantastically British. "You realise if you kidnap me, the Conservatives will win by about 200 or 300?" Classic stuff.

The Evening Stanners

Will Jeremy Hunt Become Rhyming Slang?

Answer: only if he keeps thinking before he speaks. In trying to praise the England supporters in South Africa, you see, Mr Hunt (the Culture Secretary) decided to draw comparisons between the sensible behaviour at this tournament, and say, the hooliganism of Heysel. And Hillsborough.

Ah.

Now, both Heysel and Hillsborough were terrible disasters. But they are very different disasters. Heysel, which occurred in 1985, was a result of Liverpool fans deciding that breaking through a fence to attack Juventus fans was a good idea. It wasn't. The Juventus fans tried to scarper, got crushed against a wall, and 39 people died, 32 of them Juventus supporters. Unsurprisingly, Liverpool were banned from European football, and quite rightly so.

Hillsborough, however, was not the result of Liverpool supporters running amok; far from it. What happened at Hillsborough was ultimately more tragic: many supporters were late for the match, and the police desperately tried to get fans in through a few entrances. It was a fatal mistake. The rush of people was too great, and people began to be crushed against the fence at the front of the terrace: again, common sense on behalf of the police would have saved many lives, as two policemen on horseback at the front would have at least broken up the crowd. Instead, South Yorkshire Police were left with the very brutal consequences; 96 Liverpool fans dead, only 14 of which actually reached a hospital.

Does that sound like hooliganism to you? It doesn't to me. It sounds like a number of failures by a police force to keep control, which is what the Taylor Report later concluded. Very different from Heysel, though Heysel still retains the power to shock the neutral.

So methinks Jeremy Hunt should actually go and watch a Liverpool game at some point. It might just be that he hears the following chant that's been going for over 20 years: "Justice for the 96". Though he might want to pick an away game first, mightn't he?

The Evening Stanners

PS I can't help but feel saying sorry to Liverpool is becoming a legal requirement for prominent Conservatives. Boris Johnson a few years ago, anyone?

PPS Ooh, Michael Howard (former Conservative Party leader) is a Liverpool fan! Perhaps my hypothesis needs work...