Third Debate: Brown And... Out?

Seconds out... it's Round Three! Still can't believe I've survived watching all three debates, but on with the show. Tonight's debate was about the economy, and featured tax, manufacturing, housing, immigration, and a whole bunch of other things. David Dimbleby was moderating: as a result, it was a proper debate. Dimbleby would be excellent on any network, of course, but the BBC will be extremely pleased with how he did.

The impartial verdict

Cameron: Much better. Starting to look like a man who can lead, even if it means leading a coalition. Immigration cap argument poor, otherwise incisive and unflappable. Looked most like a Prime Minister, which always helps.

Clegg: Wobbled a bit on immigration, but still fresh and engaging on teaching and being open with people: slightly repetitive, but focused on both cameras and questions. Expectations were high, though not as high as last week, and he still polled second place overall.

Brown: Brilliant mind, terrible PR. Had sound arguments in places, but spent far too much time attacking Cameron when he could, in theory, have done much better by destroying Clegg. "I agree with David" his worst moment of the night: seemed to be doing his best to destroy the idea of a Lib-Con coalition. Now it just looks even more likely.

Third Debate - Cameron 36%; Clegg 35%; Brown 29%

Second Debate - Cameron 32%; Clegg 33%; Brown 34%

First Debate - Cameron 30%; Clegg 38%; Brown 32%

They think it's all over: it is now?

In terms of the leaders' debates, yes: but in terms of the result, it's anything but. The polls are encouraging for the Conservatives and David Cameron: but anything can happen in a week, and now is no time for arrogance. Still, you have to argue he did a lot better than first time around.

For me, it's relatively simple: Brown cannot quite move with the times. He is stuck in the past, when for Labour, life was much, much easier.

It is the unfortunate side-effect of being in politics for so long: he has been Chancellor for 10 years, and Prime Minister for 3 years. That's some achievement, but it comes at a price: he still fights, but he fights in a world quite different to 1997. He does not identify with the new generation, he is not universally liked, and he has a reputation for dithering. The press, somewhat unfairly, brand him as yesterday's news: come next Friday, he might well be.

A wounded PM

After this past week, people will feel sorry for Gordon: and despite all his faults, I feel sorry for him. He's a damn sight better than those in his own party, who on three occasions were disloyal enough to try and evict him on their terms, not ours. But these days, clinging on to power is not a virtue, and many believe his personal success has come at the expense of an innocent electorate. What's more, at times tonight he simply failed to engage my interest, hard as I tried. So unless he can rally in the next few days, or Cameron commits the mother of all gaffes, he is finished.

Cameron "We fix it"?

And seeing as I've just mentioned Cameron, let me say this: my word, he's bounced back. Just as well, mind you, or he would have been finished off as well. Losing all three debates would have been disastrous for a man whose PR is supposed to be top-class.

He's still not quite the finished product, mind; and he is sorely lacking Blair's ability to make his party move with him on every issue. But he talks in a language that engages even his critics, and that might, just might, be enough. The key will be to remain quietly confident, and stop his team from declaring they've already won.

Clegger Clogs

Clegg, meanwhile, has still made a difference. The Lib Dems weren't in it until the debates: and while you may not like Clegg, you can't deny his effect. He's a man who did his homework, and it's paid off. If he gets 80 seats, he's done well: if he gets 100, he should be congratulated, though certainly not hero-worshipped. The Lib Dems used to be mocked on all fronts: not any more, it would seem.

So what does the "other" poll say?

Firstly, thanks to everyone who's voted in the poll so far: over a dozen already, which is very exiciting!

Secondly, the most interesting statistic so far, and one that seems to validate my thoughts, is that no-one who's voted wants a hung parliament with Brown in charge. 10 of the 16 votes (at the time of writing) have been for a hung parliament, and an impressive 11 out of 16 votes are for a result that puts Clegg as PM. So Cameron might need to do a bit more to convince young voters, perhaps.

Still closer than some would have liked: but over the next few days, if Labour start to slip, they will keep on slipping.

It has not been a good campaign for them.

And it might just get a whole lot worse.

Chris

PS Dimbleby for PM. What d'you mean, he's not running?