First Leg to Clegg

Plain and simple: polls don't lie. Clegg won, though that's not to say he's already won.

You can say Clegg had the least to lose: point taken.

You can say Cameron had the most to lose: again, point taken. Too many people expect too much from one man, and it seems unfair to me.

You can say Brown has the most difficult task: but that's a challenge he should relish.

Clegg had the best soundbites, name-checked every questioner - a definite plus from me - and, more to the point, showed he can work without Cable being right by his side. He was naturally going to benefit from the publicity, but you can only beat what's put in front of you.

It should be noted that Cameron is still the favourite: but can he keep the support? In a way, I want him to. I want him to show me the Tories have changed. I want him to take them in a direction that takes Britain forward. We have had some Conservative leaders who will continue to be lauded, and in some cases rightly so. Churchill saved us from Hitler, Heath took us into Europe, Major left us with an economy that was doing well.

But the thing that worries me? Cameron got the most approval when he was talking about tighter immigration, tougher law and order, and old-school discipline. And that is full-on Thatcherite rhetoric.

I don't think all of Thatcherism is wrong. But what worries me is that Cameron is not only reliant on Thatcherite rhetoric, he's diluting it. This means he could be endangering his vote in two ways: annoying the experienced Tory stalwarts who want a leader with the guts that Thatcher undeniably had; and alienating the younger Tories who have been frustrated by the failure of Major, Hague, Duncan-Smith and Howard to get out of her shadow.

Personally, I think a lot of people have conservative tendencies in this country: in terms of crime, I think I do as well. So I think we need these people to help us move Britain forward. There are some very good Conservative candidates out there: Sarah Newton, Greg Hands, Kenneth Clarke.

Which is why - and I'm sorry to say it - that the most frustrating thing about this election is the possibility that Cameron will let those good Conservatives down. Because if he does, both he and they will be utterly vilified by our national press.

He did not convince me tonight. He kept talking about the NI tax. It might be a start, David, and it's got Brown rattled (the PM was bad, but not awful: a typical summary of his premiership). But as Nick Clegg showed tonight, you need to do two things: connect with voters, and come out fighting.

One final point? I was visiting Hampstead today, a very marginal seat that could go to any one of the three main parties.

There were two Conservative placards. There were two Labour placards.

And there were six Liberal Democrat placards.

Brown and Cameron? You have your work cut out, my right honourable friends.

Chris