Ousting A Tory Government: The Do's And Don'ts

Looking at the Labour Party website, it appears that almost every single Lib Dem voter has defected in the space of less than a week. Strange, then, that a meeting of 2,000 party activists saw a ratification of the coalition deal, as Nick Clegg convinvced his core support that the coalition was a good idea.

It's true, of course, that Labour has seen something of a boost in the past week: a Sunday Telegraph poll puts their support up to 33%, just five points behind the Tories. Such narrow margins indicate that the coalition will do very well indeed to last the whole five years. But Labour still needs a rethink of its policies: even in Scotland, where Labour crushed the opposition convincingly, four of its five manifesto points are overwhelmingly negative (though that's not to say they didn't work). With this in mind, how should the Labour Party try and topple its foes?

I say Arnie, your mate Cameron seems to have locked us out...

Do

• Elect a new leader who can appeal to floating voters. The Labour Party has only once won reclaimed access to No. 10 whilst keeping its leader: that was in the early 70's, when Harold Wilson stayed on after losing in 1970 to somehow win in '74. That said, it has also lost successive elections with the same leader, as Clement Attlee and Neil Kinnock found out to their cost. Blair, of course, succeeded where his predecessors had failed simply because he was not Old Labour: David Miliband has capitalised on this recently, saying that the party needed to think about "Next Labour".



• Point out Labour's healthier record on public spending. Labour introduced the NHS, and won three consecutive elections on the pure and simple fact that the public trusted them more than the Tories when it came to education and transport. The last Labour government also introduced the High Speed Rail link, and Ken Livingstone's two terms as Mayor of London has seen the capital's public transport improve immensely.



• Realise where Labour has made mistakes. One of the worst mindsets for the Labour Party to adopt now would be this: "We didn't deserve to lose the election, we were cheated. The public will realise this, and will come back to us at the first sign of trouble." Both Ed and Dave Miliband have been very shrewd in describing the most recent campain as catastrophic: the more Labour realises it made mistakes with the economy and with the prison service, the more it can seek to put right.



• Reach out to your supporters on a personal level. Conservative and Lib Dem supporters were thoroughly consulted on the possibility of a coalition deal: evidently, Labour supporters weren't, and made quite a noise about it. The fact that what Labour MPs were saying about a coalition differed significantly from what Labour fans on Twitter thought of the deal speaks volumes. There needs to be a more permanent connection between the two. This point was illustrated rather well by Margaret Hodge, who only started properly engaging with her constituents a year or so before the General Election: but her work paid off with a convincing victory over Nick Griffin. (Incidentally, what's happend to him? The BNP have gone very quiet all of a sudden)



• Be merciless when a major Tory crisis develops. Labour has always done very well for itself when it has harped on about either a Conservative Party scandal or an error of judgement by a Tory Prime Minister. The John Profumo affair of 1963 completely crippled the Macmillan government: the Three-Day week imposed by Ted Heath was a humiliation for Conservative supporters; and people still talk about Black Wednesday and the Poll Tax. Labour will probably be unable to do this fully until after the leadership election: but highlighting a few places in which the Tories might make enemies (tax rises, unnecessary cuts on public spending, creating an energy crisis) is definitely worthwhile. The key to this is noting that it is only worth harping on about a scandal if parts of the Conservative Party start to make noises: half a dozen backbenchers, for example.

Don't

• Assume you can take down a Tory Government on its war record. It never works. Suez and the Falklands are good opposites: Suez was a complete disaster for Anthony Eden, the Falklands a success for Margaret Thatcher. This isn't to say that a Conservative Defence Secretary is infallible - Michael Portillo's decapitation in 1997 is proof of this - but the main reason for a Conservative Government's demise is not usually to do with the military. In any case, the controversies of Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan do not exactly show Labour as being the expert in handling military situations, so best not to attack the Conservatives on that one.


• Just wait for the Tories to get rid of their leader. If David Cameron were to resign after less than five years with the Tories still in power, he would be the first Conservative Party leader to do this since 1957, when Anthony Eden stepped down. This doesn't mean that Labour can't win the next election: it just means that their Public Enemy No.1 is still going to be Cameron. So rather than expect him to run out of steam, it makes more sense to identify where he's weak: which, judging from the various flip-flops made in recent years, would seem to be on the economy and Europe. Focus on the first leader's debate in particular, and see where Cameron did right and wrong there: because most people watching it concluded that he got a lot wrong.


• Appoint a raving leftie to lead you into the next election (or a raving rightie, but that's unlikely to happen). It is important to have a prominent left-winger in a relatively high post, and promote those who are both to the left and competent: this usually works well for Labour, and Jon Cruddas will hopefully illustrate this. But Michael Foot's time as leader is still an excellent example of how to alienate those more towards the centre of the political spectrum. 306 constituencies will not become socialist, or even anti-Conservative overnight.



• Think you can appoint anyone as Shadow Home Secretary. Oh dear me, no. The fact remains that only two men have ever survived a full Labour Government as Home Secretary in 65 years: Jack Straw (1997-2001) and James Chuter Ede (1945-1951). The fact that five Home Secretaries came and went in the nine years after Straw moved to the Foreign Office speaks volumes. Oh, and the fact two of them lost their seats this month probably doesn't help. Keeping Alan Johnson in his current role, on the other hand, probably would.


• Ignore your women, especially if it leads to calling them bigoted or blaming it all on Sue. In these modern times, men-only cabinets are a dangerous concept, hence the discontent with the current cabinet set-up, which only has three women to its name. Furthermore, one of these women, Teresa May, is coming under fire for appearing to contradict the criteria needed to become the Secretary of State for Equality. Labour, on the other hand, have a number of talented women in their ranks: Harman has done well as Deputy Leader, Bevanite_Ellie is noted for her ability to command support on Twitter, and Sarah Brown frequently came to her husband's rescue.

Those are just a few points that the next Labour Shadow Cabinet will do well to remember: others include how Labour has a better record in manufacturing, how the Labour Party needs to be more convincing on immigration, and so on. But the main point to remember is that the coalition is unlikely to fall apart before October: therefore, the leadership campaign should not be rushed. One of the key reasons why the Tories failed to learn their lessons after 1997 and 2001 was because they did not hold very long post-mortems. In the case of Cameron, the party waited a good six months after the 2005 election before he was elected leader. The result? A Conservative Prime Minister.

Patience is needed: the more rational and reasonable Labour looks, the more panicky and edgy the Conservatives will appear. In the words of Guinness, good things come to those who wait.

For Labour, that will be at least three years. Best put the kettle on.

The Evening Stanners